Value. Risk. High payouts. Betting on the moneyline combines all the factors that make gambling on sports such an exciting venture.
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Best Bet: Ducks Moneyline (-111) vs. Sharks (MGMbets) Simply put, the Ducks are bad but they aren't as bad as the Sharks and they should likely be heavier favorites in this matchup given that they're at home. Anaheim carries just a 45.7% expected goal rate (xGF%) into this game which is bad but not nearly as bad as San Jose who sits last in. A moneyline bet is betting which team will win a game and this is one of the easiest and straightforward bets you will find. In moneyline betting, if a punter chooses the winning side, the bookmaker will pay the payout amount and please note that there is no point spread with a moneyline bet. Below is a simple explanation of a moneyline bet: Lakers: +133 Cavaliers: -112 Suppose you want to place a $100 bet on this basketball match between Lakers and Cavaliers. How Moneyline Bets are Paid Out. Moneyline bets are set in relation to how much a bettor would have to bet to win $100 if betting on the favorite, or how much they'd win if they bet $100 on the underdog. So, for example, to win $100 on the Red Sox in game 1, bettors had to risk $120. Mar 29, 2020 NFL moneyline odds run the gauntlet from razor close to astronomical. Although they are two separate options, moneylines are closely tied to the point spread odds. A favorite listed at -1 (-110).
If you're not familiar with the term, the moneyline is best described as the odds you get when you bet on who will win a game straight up. When you take the spread out of the occasion, betting becomes less about luck and more about spotting your opportunities and taking advantage of them.
The unfortunate reality is that most amateur bettors ignore the moneyline because of the risk involved.
Either you bet on a favorite and risk losing more than you stand to gain, or you bet on the underdog and have a much higher chance to lose your bet.
With that being said, the moneyline presents a unique chance to win big if you have the right strategy in place. In this article, I'll lay out the factors to take into consideration that could help you capitalize on moneyline bets in all sports.
1 – Selection Is Key
In the same way the real estate is about location, location, location, betting on the moneyline is all about selection, selection…you get the point.
Whereas betting on the spread can leave more opportunity to win bets when you don't really know what you're doing, consistently adding to your bankroll via moneyline bets requires you to be picky when deciding which games to play.
Obviously, the trick in finding the best value is identifying games in which the underdog has a chance to win, or betting on a favorite isn't too costly. However, if you're playing multiple games at once, you can take a few more chances.
It's important to keep in mind that sportsbooks adjust their moneylines in accordance with the public's action, so you can find instances where the odds actually lean slightly your way if you have more knowledge of a game.
Research is key when deciding which plays to make, so do an adequate amount of homework and carefully choose which underdogs you think have a chance to win a game outright.
2 – Long-Term Approach
I can't stress this enough—betting on the moneyline is a long-term game. Evaluating your success or failure after just a few games, or even a few weeks, isn't going to help you gather an accurate assessment.
Because the best value in betting moneylines is found on the underdog, you're almost always going to lose more bets than you win.
The key is recognizing that you can lose more than half of your bets and still make a ton of money if you win the right games.
One of the best ways to stay on top of how you're doing is by creating a tracking system so that you're aware of the money coming in and money going out. Because, as previously mentioned, you're likely to lose more bets than you win overall, it can create a distorted picture if you don't monitor things correctly.
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Let's say that over the course of an NFL weekend you bet on $50 on each of 10 games. You might lose six games, which would put you at -$300. But if you win four games at an average of +170, you'd still come out ahead.
3 – Don't Neglect Favorites (But Choose Carefully)
Many bettors think that unless you only bet favorites, moneylines aren't worth the risk. However, that's not always the case. Odds poker hands texas holdem.
It's probably best to stay away from favorites in the -250 to -300 range, as this is the spot where upsets are still entirely possible and it's not worth it to make a bet where you'll only return a third of your money.
If you're the type of bettor who wants to play the favorites, consider giving away some points, even if it's not the full spread. This will increase your payouts and slightly close the gap between risk and reward.
Another move that can be profitable is a multi-team parlay with moneyline favorites.
In any given NFL week, you can choose the top three or four most lopsided games and still get a nice haul if you hit on each. Card poker. While you might only win the same amount you bet, meaning $100 to win $100, it's not necessarily too big of a risk. Just keep in mind that, as the cliché goes, anyone can win on any given Sunday.
The best odds for betting favorites exists in the -150 to -200 range. These lines present an opportunity to win back decent money for your bet. Obviously, you're going to suffer some losses that will make you feel like it's pointless to bet on the favorite, but that's the price you pay for picking the team that 'should' win.
4 – Consider the Sport
Bettors who like gambling on baseball and hockey games are acquainted with the power of the moneyline in a unique way. Unlike basketball and football, baseball and hockey's 'default' play is who will win the game outright.
Most baseball betting purists will contend that it's always a smarter move to put your money on the underdog.
After all, even the worst teams in the league win about 60 times per year. Because of the unpredictability of who will win is so high, when you're able to find an underdog at -200 or more, the value is hard to resist. Though the winning percentage numbers are slightly different, the same philosophy holds true for hockey.
Things are a little different when it comes to betting on football and basketball moneylines. In football, if there's a favorite of -200 or more, statistically, they're much more likely to win the game outright than in other sports.
Basketball can be a bit more difficult, as good teams are susceptible to upsets, but only in certain situations. If you're betting on the NBA, do your research to find out which scenarios create a better chance for the underdog to win and you can make educated plays with high value.
Determining the likelihood of underdogs winning outright is always going to be a complicated proposition, so make sure to do research specific to the sport you want to bet on before taking the leap.
5 – Assess Value
All gamblers know that the key to a good betting strategy is making plays with good value. Draftkings season long leagues. Finding value is a concept that's easy in theory, but extremely difficult in practice.
Sportsbooks put a value on each time via the moneyline, and while this is a good starting point, it isn't necessarily always accurate. This means that you'll have to do some work on your end to see if your prediction of the potential outcome of a game align with the odds presented.
The best way to do this is by first evaluating each game without looking at the moneyline.
Take all factors into account such as injuries, whether or not a team is hot or cold, past history between the two teams, and obviously overall team talent. This will help you decide if a team is over, under, or properly valued.
You'll find that an undervalued underdog is attractive because you can bet less to win more. Although this is absolutely true, bettors have a tendency to overlook undervalued favorites. If there was ever such thing as a 'safe' bet, it's a moneyline favorite when you can get odds better than -150.
Conclusion
It's unlikely that you'll give up betting on spreads entirely, but adding the moneyline option to your betting strategy can have huge benefits. It's a good way to recognize that not only do favorites not always cover the spread, but they often lose outright.
Best Moneyline Bets Nfl Week 2
Find a specialty, whether it's finding value in favorites or underdogs, and see if you can steal a few games without worrying about covering.
It comes down to one game, the matchup between the Chiefs and Bucs as the NFL gets set to crown the champion of the 2020-21 NFL season. Will it be a repeat for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs? Or will it be an incredible 7th Super Bowl win for Tom Brady and a second for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers franchise?
The anticipation is palpable…
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, February 07, 2021 – 06:30 PM EST at Raymond James Stadium
Before turning to the pressing business of predicting the winner of SBLV, let's just take a moment to savour the fact that the league has actually reached this point at all. With nary a hiccup too, mind you. When the season got underway back in September in the midst of a global pandemic that disrupted training camps, preseason games, and all manner of team interaction, understandably there was an air of cautious optimism. The NFL was getting underway, but no guarantees could be given that the regular season would be completed in its entirety, never mind contemplating the playoffs and Super Bowl 55 going to plan.
Moneyline Best Bets
Fast forward through five months of rip-roaring action, weeks of scintillating football games being played (in most cases) to largely empty stadiums around the country and… amazingly, delightfully, ecstatically…. the league has arrived to destination Super Bowl 55 in Tampa, Florida. Like a Hollywood movie, the protagonists couldn't have been any better than had the league handpicked them. A Super Bowl billing between Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady is a quarterback battle for the ages – one that if it lives up to the hype and buzz is sure to be a right cracker and – dare it be said – a total tossup for NFL picks.
That's not how sportsbooks are calling it though, as the Kansas City Chiefs emerge as the firm road faves to win in straight up betting markets. Depending on your choice betting site, the Chiefs are currently trading anywhere between -165 to -170 to lift the Lombardy Trophy. On the flipside, the Buccaneers are tipped as the considerable home underdogs priced anywhere between +145 and +150 to pull off the upset.
Contrary to this market stance, the betting is split down the middle with action coming down the wire on both sides of the coin in equal measure. At the time of writing (Tuesday, February 2,), the Chiefs and Bucs have 50% of the tickets apiece. If that's not an indication that the public at least considers this game to be a coin-flip, what is?
Are the Bucs Underrated at the Expense of the Chiefs?
Without a doubt, the Chiefs are the team to beat going into Super Bowl LV. They're a well-oiled machine that has made a habit of winning since Patrick Mahomes took over the reins from Alex Smith in 2018. His first two years were a magic carpet ride with first an AFC Championship appearance in 2018 and then winning SBLIV a year later. What Mahomes accomplished in his short career is certainly impossible to overlook, and that very fact is partly why the Chiefs are widely expected to come up trumps on Sunday at Raymond James Stadium.
Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady have split their four career meetings evenly, 2-2 SU, but Patrick Mahomes owns the 'W' in the last two. Mahomes beat Tom Brady in his last season with the Patriots during the regular season, and he beat Brady in his first season with the Bucs during the regular season 27-24 at Raymond James Stadium. However, it's worth pointing out one interesting trend here: the team that has won in the regular season is 6-7 SU in a Super Bowl rematch.
Ever since Tom Brady made the move out of New England and signed with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, betting sites elevated Tampa Bay's odds in Super Bowl 55 betting markets, moving them into top contention – a position that was as foreign as winning itself was. In 2019, Tampa Bay finished 7-9 SU in Bruce Arians first season with the organization. They were 5-11 the two years prior. Heck, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' combined record is under .500. over the last decade in the NFL. But lo and behold, they're Super Bowl bound in 2020, and there's no mystery why that's the case. Two words: Tom Brady.
Bruce Arians himself acknowledged that it took 'one man to turn around the organization overnight from the league's punching bag to a Super Bowl contender. The remarkable turnaround is the single most underrated achievement by the current Super Bowl betting market as it were. Not even Joe Montana did what Tom Brady has done in his second act.
Brady's achievement is made all the more splendid, inspirational, courageous, breath-taking…there's no end to the hyperbole one could trot out on this occasion… for the simple fact that he, at 43 years of age, defied his critics and naysayers that were all too eager to write him off in his new adventure. Even suggesting it would be impossible for Brady to enjoy a fraction of the success he had with the New England Patriots, as if he were half the man without Bill Belichick at his side.
Tale told, Brady put paid on his critics and turned preconceived notions upside down by leading the Buccaneers to Super Bowl 55. If he can go one better and beat the highly-fancied Kansas City Chiefs, it would be an amazing victory. Perhaps, his greatest Super Bowl victory of all.
NFL Betting Predictions and Picks
Across the board, sports media writers, pundits, armchair critics appear to be cornering their Super Bowl pick with the Kansas City Chiefs. While it's understandable why many would lean towards the Chiefs, it's surprising to discover that finding a pick that serves up the Buccaneers to upset the Chiefs is like looking for a needle in the haystack. In the interest of symmetry and.. to play a bit of devil's advocate – maybe it's time an NFL betting article goes boldly where few have gone before…
Betting the Chiefs is a sound bet, one that is impossible to argue with it at all. Bettors could do no worse than bet the Chiefs to win. However, Tom Brady has won more championship titles in his career than any other player or team in the league. In one year – a pandemic induced year, mind you – he singlehandedly turned around a franchise and led it to SBLV. That's just bonkers. If that's not an indication that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are dangerous floaters in this game, what is?
Put it simply, if the team is buying what Tom Brady is selling, shouldn't everyone?
Nfl Moneyline Bet
NFL Pick:Buccaneers +150 with Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don't forget to refer back to our live odds.
Super Bowl 2021 Prop Bets: Odds For Player Props, Best Bets, Picks For Chiefs Vs. Buccaneers, Coin Toss And Gatorade Shower
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